Is it possible the Japanese respond to Star Wars primarily as a forward-looking sci-fi franchise and that Episode VII’s swooning yet carefully calculated nostalgia, gathering around western actors, is less appealing there? That might also explain why box office in other developing territories (Mexico, $24.5m South Korea, $23.1m Russia, $22.9m Brazil, $21.2m) is good but not the overwhelming victory you might expect from a Star Wars franchise. Top territory for Episodes I-III, it has now slipped to fourth place ($52.9m). Now that the latter has shown its hand, one thing that stands out is that where it is rock-solid in the western heartlands (the UK, $145m running total Germany, $81.4m France, $67.4m Australia, $50.7m – four territories that consistently placed second to fifth for George Lucas’s prequels), the one big change is Japan. We looked at possible reasons for Avatar’s unparalleled success a fortnight ago when The Force Awakens opened. But the fact remains that its American stronghold is not displaying the indefatigable stamina shown by Avatar overseas, this weekend’s take is already under $100m, a figure the Cameron film exceeded for six consecutive frames.
Is this defensiveness due to it looking increasingly likely that The Force Awakens won’t pass Avatar ($2.8bn) for the all-time worldwide crown? Taking $900m-1bn in the US and a national-record-high $400m-plus haul in China, where it opens on 9 January, would put it in with a shot. What’s worth digging deeper into is its overseas performance, slightly fogged by the fact that Disney for some reason won’t confirm exactly how many territories it’s playing in. The pace is astonishing, particularly for the normally sedate December period, but the reason is searingly obvious: being the latest in the world’s most-vaunted film franchise would always be in its favour. And this will have happened in about a quarter of the time James Cameron’s blockbuster took to reach that point. Unpredecented US grosses for weekends one, two and three mean that Avatar’s all-time US record of $760.8m (unadjusted for inflation) is as good as toast, probably by tomorrow or Wednesday. Three weekends along on Star Wars: The Force Awakens, we’re in a much better position to place bets on its final box-office tally.